Skip to main content

Checking access...

Portfolio Strategy

CSAM

Walk-forward

Cross-Sectional Allocation Model

Rebalancing
Monthly
Universe
47 Futures & ETFs
As of
...

The Strategy

CSAM (Cross-Sectional Allocation Model) is a systematic strategy that allocates across a broad universe of 47 assets spanning equity indices, fixed income, energy, metals, agriculture, livestock, currencies, and crypto. Signals are generated from futures markets; execution uses micro futures and ETF proxies, which makes the strategy tradable from $50,000.

Each month the model holds a focused set of up to five positions from across the universe and scales overall exposure to the market environment. The result is a concentrated, risk-managed allocation that adjusts monthly. The model is fully rules-based with no discretionary input.

Walk-Forward Test Active Starting June 23, 2026, this strategy is being tested with market data in a walk-forward framework. All historical data before this date represents backtested performance. The vertical marker in the chart indicates the start of the walk-forward period.

How It Works

On the last trading day of each month, CSAM selects its positions with a quantitative model and sets exposure for the month ahead.

The model is built to avoid look-ahead bias, so historical and live results stay comparable. The dashboard shows both backtested and out-of-sample performance. The shaded area marks June 23, 2026, the start of the walk-forward test. Data to the left is historical backtesting; data to the right is hypothetical out-of-sample performance.

47
Signal Universe
Top 5
Long Positions
Monthly
Rebalancing
$50K
Min. Account Size

Simulation Settings

Set your start date and initial capital to configure your portfolio. CSAM rebalances monthly across a universe of 47 assets. Data is available from February 2011.

Model Performance

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough decline

Historical Allocation

Model Value
--
--
YTD Return
--
Benchmark SPY: -- (--)
Volatility (6M Lookback)
--
Sharpe Ratio
--
Excess return basis

Walk-Forward Performance

Since Apr 25, 2026
--
CSAM Return
--
SPY B&H Return
--
Outperformance
--
Trading Days

Model Asset Class Allocation

Model ETF Allocation

Model Allocation

Hypothetical model weights for illustration only. Shown as of the latest data refresh. Model value: initial capital plus accumulated hypothetical returns.

Symbol Weight Price Shares Value
Loading holdings...

Performance Metrics

Sortino Ratio
--
Downside risk-adjusted
Max Drawdown
--
Peak to trough
Info Ratio
--
Active return
Beta
--
vs SPY
Calmar Ratio
--
Return/Max DD
VaR (95%)
--
Daily at risk
Downside Dev
--
Downside risk
Up Capture
--
Bull market
Down Capture
--
Bear market
Positive Months
--
Historical %

Walk-Forward Test Status

Walk-forward testing started April 25, 2026

Monthly rebalancing (next: --)

--
days to rebalance

Crisis Performance

Strategy behavior during major market downturns:

Crisis CSAM SPY
2008 GFC---55%
2020 Covid---34%
2022 Bear---25%

CSAM vs SPY Portfolio

Full backtest period comparison:

Metric CSAM SPY
CAGR----
Volatility----
Sharpe Ratio----
Max Drawdown----

Strategy Health Monitor

Live drift detection and alpha decay tracking

Drift Detection

Detects structural shifts in performance

...
Drift level 0%
0% 50% watch 80% warn 100% alert

Alpha Decay Monitor

Risk-adjusted return, 12 vs 36 months

...
12M Sharpe
--
36M Sharpe
--
12M Alpha
--
Decay Slope
--

The left panel flags structural shifts in performance against expectations. The right panel compares recent risk-adjusted returns with the longer-run track record. A weakening trend points to a fading edge.

Statistical Validation

Before deployment, CSAM was validated with a battery of standard statistical robustness tests. All tests used the fixed production strategy without post-hoc parameter tuning.

Permutation Test passed
p < 0.005

200 shuffled prediction sequences tested. None matched the observed Sharpe ratio.

Bootstrap passed
CI: 1.10 – 2.08

5,000 bootstrap samples produce a 95% confidence interval for the Sharpe ratio entirely above zero.

Out-of-Sample passed
10/10 positive

Walk-forward validation across ten folds. All folds produced positive Sharpe ratios.

Noise Robustness passed
100% retained

Added noise across 100 seeds retains the full Sharpe ratio. Robust to small perturbations in the return stream.

Regime Stability passed
15/16 years

Positive returns in 15 of 16 calendar years (2011-2026). Only 2018 showed a small negative return.

Benchmark Alpha passed
5/5 positive

Walk-forward validation confirms positive Sharpe in all folds. No single period drives the overall result.

All tests conducted on the fixed production strategy. Past statistical performance does not guarantee future results.